The Authors, some Forecasting mechanical failure and the 26 June 2018 rights...

Gregg, P., Y. Zhan, F. Amelung, D. Geist, P. Mothes, S. Koric, and Z. Yunjun (2022), The Authors, some Forecasting mechanical failure and the 26 June 2018 rights reserved; exclusive licensee eruption of Sierra Negra Volcano, Galápagos, Ecuador American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to, Pm Us Et Friday, 2, 00-8.

Using recent advancements in high-performance computing data assimilation to combine satellite InSAR data with Commons Attribution numerical models, the prolonged unrest of the Sierra Negra volcano in the Galápagos was tracked to provide a fortuitous, NonCommercial but successful, forecast 5 months in advance of the 26 June 2018 eruption. Subsequent numerical simulations License 4.0 (CC BY-NC). reveal that the evolution of the stress state in the host rock surrounding the Sierra Negra magma system likely controlled eruption timing. While changes in magma reservoir pressure remained modest (<15 MPa), modeled widespread Mohr-Coulomb failure is coincident with the timing of the 26 June 2018 moment magnitude 5.4 earthquake and subsequent eruption. Coulomb stress transfer models suggest that the faulting event triggered the 2018 eruption by encouraging tensile failure along the northern portion of the caldera. These findings provide a critical framework for understanding Sierra Negra’s eruption cycles and evaluating the potential and timing of future eruptions.

Research Program: 
Earth Surface & Interior Program (ESI)
Funding Sources: 
National Science Foundation (OCE 1834843, EAR 1752477, and EAR 2122745), Blue Waters sustained petascale computing project, which is supported by the National Science Foundation (OCI-0725070 and ACI-1238993) and the state of Illinois