NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Forecast based on

• on satellite
• current surface observations
• 00 UTC ETA
• 00 UTC NGM
• 09 UTC MAPS/RUC
• MRF
• 12z ECWMF

Synopsis

A strong shortwave trough over northeastern Kansas is rotating around the base the longwave system situated over the central plains. An associated surface system is moving into western Missouri. An occluded frontal band with rain and embeeded convection arcs from northwestern Louisana throug Illinois, the Dakotas and northwestern Kansas.

Prognosis Discussion

The system in the Plains is expected to lift northeastward while a cold northwesterly flow establishes over Kansas and Oklahoma. Strong high pressure will build into the region as the upper level ridge advances over the Rockies. This ridge will deamplify with time and a much weakened ridge axis is progged over the central plains on tuesday.

48 hour Forecast:

12z 14 Apr - 00Z 15 Apr: Cloudy and cold with isolated rain/snow showers. Winds in Salina will be from the northeast becoming northerly 15-20 knots. Near the central facility, winds will become northerly by 20z.

00Z 15 Apr - 12Z 15 Apr: Continued cloudy, cold and windy with snowshowers decreasing.

12z 15 Apr - 12Z 16 Apr: Mostly cloudy boundary layer clouds will decrease during the day. Winds will be northerly 15-20 knots decreasing somewhat during the afternoon and evening. Maximum temperatures will struggle into the low 50's.

Extended Range Discussion:

12z 16 Apr - 12Z 17 Apr: There is a reasonable expectation that cirrus will spread over the region from the west during the mid morning and persist into the evening. Winds will be light initially and become southerly during the afternoon and likely increase in speed.

Mace and Walker